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WEBMINISTER.COM NEWSLETTER
webminister@webminister.com
May 2000 - #2
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IN THIS ISSUE:
1. REASON FOR THIS NEWSLETTER
2. CHURCH GROWTH
3. LEADERSHIP
4. CHURCH INTERNET WEB SITE
5. BOOK RECOMMENDATIONS
6. SUBSCRIBE/UNSUBSCRIBE

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1. REASON FOR THIS NEWSLETTER
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Warren Buffett manages Berkshire Hathaway holding company. If one invested $10,000 in 1965, it would be worth over five million today. While holding significant number of shares in the Washington Post Co, the Buffalo News, and Ganett Co (publishes USA Today), he sees a dim future for newspapers. In Omaha NE at the annual stockholders meeting, he described "newspapers as doomed to declining profits in the face of the Internet, unable to overcome their cost disadvantage of printing and distribution." (USA Today, May 4, 2000 p 3b)

Buffett "won't count on new technology company profits to endure, either. This is how Buffett can be as amazed at the power of the Internet but not buy its stocks." In addition, Buffett added "NEWSPAPERS ARE VERY THREATENED BY THE INTERNET." (emphasis added)

In the 70s and 80s both the "Gospel Advocate" and "Firm Foundations" went from weekly to a bi-weekly magazines and stated the reason for the change "was necessitated because of astronomical increases in postage." Recently postal rates went up in 1996, 1999, and a rate to be determined beginning in 2001. What about subscription costs?

In reviewing the circulation of eleven Restoration publications the following results were found. "Over the past ten years eleven church magazines used in this study have declined 21% in subscribers. However, the decline is probably closer to 27%, because many editors/publishers were mailing to many whose subscriptions had expired and cleaned up their subscription lists due to rising costs and postage rates. This declining trend over the past 35 years has grown much steeper over the last ten years. One can only guestimate the reasons for the decline from various studies and surveys over the past few years." For full analysis of the quote, read the article "Where Have All The Subscribers Gone?" http://webminister.com/growth01/plan0056.htm How many publications will go out of business in the next decade?

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2. CHURCH GROWTH
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Whether one wants to admit it or not, group dynamics governs a groups size. For fellowship groups, Lyle Schaller considers the "Rule of 40" as the most neglected rule of church administration. "In general, whenever human beings gather in a voluntary association that emphasizes relationships with one another, there is a natural tendency to limit the size to fewer than 40 persons." http://webminister.com/growth01/plan0151.htm

Almost half (5,434) of the churches of Christ congregations average fewer than 49 in Sunday worship. Very few adult Sunday school classes and auditorium classes regardless of their enrollment, average more than 40 in attendance.

(More on group dynamics and various barriers based on function in the next Newsletter.)

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3. LEADERSHIP
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One of the four groups of "unchurched" is the unchurched attenders. They attend a church at least six times a year. Those that attend a church without joining it are less committed to the church or its teachings than are those who both attend and belong. If they do place membership they are still more likely to drop out. They are more liberal in their views and have a low level of trust in "organized religion."

The unchurched attenders are less likely to be involved in stable marriages including children. Twenty-six percent are currently unmarried compared to 16% for regular attenders. Fifty-two percent have been divorced compared to 16% for regular attenders. Thirty-five percent have not had any children compared to 15% for regular attenders. They are more likely to be involved in nonchurch community organizations and social movements.

Unchurched attenders educational level is the same as church members. Most are in the process of "shopping around" or "trying out a church." They are experimenting with church involvement or moving to a new church after a bad experience in an earlier one. They are more likely to have had a bad experience in a divorce.

Most have not joined because they have not found the church that suits them. Some have a long term relationship with a church, but have reservations and are unwilling to formalize it. One person stated "lots of people in the church are different from us. We don't feel a sense of identity here."

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4. CHURCH INTERNET WEB SITE
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More and more colleges and universities are using the Internet as a mode of instruction, instead of the brick and morter of classrooms and campuses. The cost of dormatories, classrooms, parking, security are giving way to an Internet delivery system of text, videos, library resources, and on-line testing. With broader bandwidth coming in the next few years, classroom lectures will become full screen presentations available to the requestor at his/her time and can be viewed over and over. While many institutions are adding a electronics fee to help defray the cost of computer servers and delivery bandwidth, many are decreasing tution costs by as much as two-thirds. One western five state consortium is limiting classes to 2,000 taught on-line by one professor and graders. Both General Electric and IBM have opened their own universities and are offering MBAs to their own employees and others as well as saving money from the traditional education.

With out of date copyright, over five million books will be on the Internet in a few years according to the Library of Congress. Many colleges, library associations, consortium, and state financed Internet libraries now have free magazines and jounals on-line. However, religious publications are lagging behind. Christian periodicals which reside in colleges and university libraries are not generally available to the Internet student.

More and more Internet classes are designed around those resources that are on the Internet and not what is in the school's library. If present religious publishers plan to profit from their publications, they either will have to cooperate with an Internet company that makes a large number of journals available for a price. EBSCO, First Search, and ProQuest provide full text databases and search engines. The other choice is simply give the publication away with the cost and maintance of Internet servers and their own web sites.

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5. BOOK RECOMMENDATION
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Gary McIntosh & Glen Martin wrote "Finding Them, Keeping Them: Effective Strategies for Evangelism and Assimilation in the Local Church." As the title implies, the book is divided into two parts.

First, McIntosh and Martin present five forms of evangelism and how to get the congregation involved. Eighty percent should be involved in inviting (planting), 50% in friendship evangelism (cultivating), and 10% as soul winners (harvesting). With a few self tests, one can analyse the congregation's strong and weak points and adjust the evangelistic approach.

Second, keeping them is a strategy of assimilation through friendship, involvement with various roles and tasks, small groups, helping them becoming involved with the purpose of the church, and, of course, through spiritual growth. The ministries of the church become centered for assimilation of new people.

"Finding Them, Keeping Them" can be bought from Barnes and Noble with a 20% discount for $7.99 (paperback) plus shipping and handling at http://webminister.com/barnes/book5018.htm

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6. SUBSCRIBE/UNSUBSCRIBE
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In His Service,

The Webminister