Purpose of this article. An attempt has been made to study church magazine distribution over the last 40 years and the trends of various issues. By gathering total distribution figures over a number of years, one can analyse the growth or decline of a publication. This collected information is used to explain a magazine's established trend. With a number of magazines recording the same magnitude of change the future of these church publications becomes obvious. Only a few magazines have been found that move opposite the major trend. This study will not attempt to judge magazines on content, such as theological standings on various issues; being labeled as conservative, mainstream, or liberal; selection of writers, or subscription costs. This article does not meet scientific standards, misses some factual statistical data, and comes from information from writers, editors, publishers, and published Post Office Certificates of Ownership and Circulation.

The Selection of some church of Christ magazines. The publications selected for this study are random and come from suggestions of a number of church magazine readers or non-readers who consider certain magazines as representative of churches of Christ. The most suggested were Christian Bible Teacher, Christian Chronicle, Christian Woman, Firm Foundation, The Gospel Advocate, and 21st Century Christian. After these six, the suggestions varied greatly. As a result, the next criteria depended upon availability, the filing and publishing of Form 3526 in their magazines, and conversations with numerous editors/publishers.

By the act of Congress of August 12, 1970, section 3685, Title 39, United States Code, each year most subscriber magazines and journal are required to file with the U.S. Postal Service PS Form 3526 -- Statement of Ownership, Management, and Circulation. This form is to be completed and filed with the local postmaster annually on or before October 1 of each year. Those using second class mail must print this form in any issue in October or, if the publication is not published during October, the first issue printed after October. This form requires the total number of copies in the net press run, the number of paid and/or requested circulation, the number of free distribution by mail, the free distribution outside the mail, total distribution, and copies not distributed. This form also requires other information of the owners, indebtedness, and frequency of issue.

Supporting Information came from Union List of Restoration Periodicals in Participating Christian College Libraries compiled by Don L. Meredith, Harding University Graduate School of Religion, Memphis TN, May 1996. This compilation lists the holdings by year of the various publications in brotherhood universities and colleges.

Number of Subscribers at the Turn of the Millinium. Using Mac Lynn's Churches of Christ in the United States -- 2000, membership was 1,240,820 in 1980, 1,284,056 in 1990, and 1,264,152 in 2000. These figures indicated a plateaued -- non-growthing and non-declining church of Christ movement. In comparing this to the population of the United States a decline has set in. Presently The Christian Chronicle distributes just over 103,000 copies of its newspaper. Power for Today, a quarterly devotional guide, has a circulation of 46,000. All other magazines in this study now come in at less than 14,000. This means that one church member in 12 receives The Christian Chronicle. For the other magazines, less than one in 95 brotherhood members receive the same magazine. This amounts to less than one copy of a magazine for every congregation!

1. Christian Bible Teacher was first published in 1956 by Quality Printing and by 1969 had a distribution of 25,013 with teaching and leadership ideas for teachers of all age groups, leadership, and educational ministries. By 1978 distribution had fallen by 2,663 to 22,350 or about 11%. The decline accelerated over the next 11 years to 11,573 in 1989 or 48%. During the last decade of the millinium the magazine declined to 5,477 or 53%. The style, content, and general make-up the magazine has not changed much during its 45 year history.

2. The Christian Chronicle started in 1943 in Dallas TX is now published by Oklahoma Christian College in Oklahoma City OK and has grown from around 80,000 to just over 103,000 over the last decade. The Chronicle is unique in that they receive a twenty dollar registration fee and no subscription fees thereafter, However, in a recent mailing, the Chronicle is looking for donations of $68,000 to help defray expenses. As a result, all other publication and postage expense are absorbed by Oklahoma Christian College.

3. Christian Woman was originally printed in 1933 by Sweet Publishing Company. Due to limited access to older issues by this author, many holes exist in the data of this magazine. However, from the issues in hand, distributing declined from 11,204 in 1970 to 6,222 in 1978 or a decline of 44%. Sweet Publishing Company stopped publication in 1980 with vol. 48. In 1985 with a new volume series, Christian Woman went through a total remake by the Gospel Advocate Company. The Reader's Digest size now became a little larger that 8 1/2 x 11 sheet of paper with colorful grahics. The number of pages more than doubled on glossy paper. By 1988 the distribution had grown to 29,252. From 1988 to 1999 decline in distribution had set in and distribution numbered 13,002 or a decline of 56%.

4. Church Growth magazine is published by the Center for Church Growth in Houston, Texas. Church Growth changed ownership in 1993 and has continued with an emphasis on biblical and practical ministry. From 1993 distribution of 7,800 has increased to around 8,500 in seven years. This is an increase of 9% in seven years.

5. Ensign was first published in 1973 as The Ensign Fair before changing to its present name. Ensign has declined over the last decade from just over 2,000 to around 1,100. This amounts to a decline of about 45%.

6. Firm Foundation was first published in 1884 at Austin TX. In 1970 distribution totaled 22,379 copies and grew to 24,440 in 1973, but then fell to 18,954 in 1978. Thus a decline from 1970 to 1978 of 18%. From 1978 until 1986 distribution declined to 8,972 or 53%. During this period Firm Foundation changed editors and removed a large number of non paying subscribers. In February 1985 Firm Foundation changed from a weekly to a bi-weekly publication. During the next five years publication fell behind and 1989 issues carried an 1988 date. Subscriptions fell to a little over 6,000 paying subcribers. In 1990, Firm Foundation became a monthly magazine. Subscriptions rose to 9,000 under the new format. In the last ten years of the millinium subscriptions rose by 33% to 12,000. While this growth appears encouraging, the overall distribution has still declined from 18,954 to 12,000 in the last 22 years. The content, format and intent has changed little during the last 30 years.

7. Gospel Advocate was first printed in 1855 in Nashville TN and circulated mainly in the south and east of the Mississippi. In 1968 distribution stood at 40,117 and remained near that level (38,920) until 1980. Then decline set in and by 1989 the total had fallen by 32% to 26,365. During the last decade of the millinium decline increased by 50% and distribution stood at 13,107. In the last 25 years the weekly magazine became bi-weekly in July, 1979, and then monthly in January 1988. The content, format, and intent has changed little during the last 40 years.

8. Gospel Tidings dates back to 1935. In the last decade the magazine has relied more on bundles to churches than individual subscriptions. Gospel Tidings has grown from 2,420 to 2,738 or 13%.

9. The Gospel Truths founded in 1980 in Tulsa OK (two other publications have used this name) had a distribution of 1,780 in 1990 and grew to 3,073 in 1996 before declining to 2,467. Gospel Truths has grown from its beginning until 1989, then, plateaued for four years, before declining by 20% over the last four years by the end of the millinium.

10. The Preceptor's total distribution in 1988 was 1,664 and declined to 925 in 1999. However, paid distribution in 1999 was only 625. In other words, paid subscription declined by 62% in 11 years.

11. 21st Century Christian was first published as 20th Century Christian before changing its name is 1990. Subscriptions have declined from 7,674 to 5,650 or 26% over the last decade. In 1997 more color was added to the magazine and in 1997, it changed from a monthly to a bi-monthly magazine.

12. The Restoration Review first published in 1959 quickly grew to over 5,000 before falling to around 2,000 just before publication ceased in 1992. A small four page occasionaly printed newsletter by that name is still distributed free of charge.

13. Word and Work dates back to 1908 as Christian Word and Work until 1914, when it adopted its present name. Subscriptions have grown from 988 to 1,012 or 2% in the last ten years.

Two publications not included in the above study because they differ from other publications which are discussed below.

First, Christian Chronicle, basically a Christian newspaper, increased distribution from 80,000 to 103,000 over ten years or 29%. The Chronicle requires a one time registration fee for a lifetime subscription. As a result, the requestor must die, move without a forwarding address, or request a termination of the newspaper to be taken off their list.

Second, Power for Today, a quarterly daily devotional, has grown 7% from 43,000 to 46,000 in the last ten years. By being a quarterly and emphasizing devotions -- less than five minutes a day -- Power for Today has carved a rather unique notch in brotherhood publications.

Changing the frequency of issue and reformating magazine.

The Gospel Advocate went from a weekly magazine in July, 1979, to a bi-weekly, and then to a monthly magazine in January, 1988. The change to a bi-weeky "was necessitated because of astronomical increases in postage." The magazine went from 16 pages to 32 pages at the same time it became a bi-weekly. In 1988 the Advocate became a monthly.

The Firm Foundation followed the same changes by going from a weekly to a bi-weekly in February, 1985, and 32 pages instead of 16 pages as before. "This change was necessitated . . . because of the astronimical increases in postage." In 1990 Firm Foundation became a monthly.

The 20th Century Christian, became 21st Century Christian in 1990 and changed from a monthly to a bi-monthly in March/April, 1997. The number of pages was increased at this time, as well as modernizing style and fonts.

In 2000, the Christian Chronicle has reformated its newspaper with different type style, more color, more illustrations, and an emphasis on younger adults.

Apparently the increases in publication and postage costs could not be passed along to subscribers, who during the 1980's were not renewing their readership and continued in some cases for a few months or years before being dropped. A number of editors stated they tried to continue mailing their magazine until cost became so great they had to do something. In this situation, subscription figures would appear to be inflated, compared to actual paid subscriptions. One magazine is giving away one for every two paid subscriptions. Due to publishing costs, a smaller press run would not help, because they are already at the minimum.

Who Are The Subscribers? In 1999 The Christian Chronicle hired Consumer Data Service to survey a sampling of the Chronicle's readers in a number of different areas. Some of the results were published in March, 2000, of the Chronicle. Only 5.1% of their readers were under 35 years of age and 54.4% were over 54. These results indicate an aging readership with the young adults not being interested. An editor of another magazine said he was suprised that "the young adult subscribers was as high as the Chronicle figures." He mentioned he is getting a number of new young subscribers, but is losing many more to death. The Chronicle's 35 to 54 age group composed only 39.3%. The Chronicle recognized that unless the younger adults were attracted into readership the newspaper's days would be numbered. Five out of six editors/publishers interviewed, admitted that the average age of their subscribers was in the 50s.

A question arises: What do readers want? A young generation accustomed to CDs DVDs, videos, and MTV learn in a different format than the older generation. They want more color, relevant answers to daily problems, building relationships, lack of theological issues unless relevant, and how to interface with God. The younger reader wants more articles on "How to . . ." in meeting the problems of those in their 20s and 30s.

Effect of the Internet. Only a few years ago (a viritual lifetime), the Internet was dominated by a white, male, educated user with a vanity personal home page. However, in a recent survey by Pew Internet & American Life Project, this has changed. At the beginning of the millenium men barely lead women as users. Fifty-one percent of men now use the Internet compared with 46% of the women. During the last six months women have closed the gap.

Racially/ethnicity, 50% of the white population use the Internet. The Hispanics are at 46% and only 35% of Blacks use the Internet. This is a big jump in both Hispanics and Blacks in the last four years.

By age, the Internet is still for the young and young at heart. For those age 18 - 29, 66% use the Internet, age group 30 - 59 represent 58%. As far as the older groups, those 59 - 64, 41% use the Internet. However, of those over 64, only 13% use the Internet for e-mail, surfing, and getting news.

Women are more likely to seek religious and/or spiritual information on the Internet. Twenty-three percent of women look for religious information compared to 19% for men. However, most religious web sites are constructed by men for men and the religious specialist. While many Christian children's web sites are being established, few exist focused on and for the Christian woman

One interesting point is those that presently subscribe are not using the internet to read Christian magazines. The ages are different and the style of learning is different.

Postage and Mailing Costs. The U.S. Postal Service raised rates in 1996 and again in January 1999 by one to four percent dependent upon Zip Code, carrier route sorting, and bulk mail rates. Those using Zip Plus Four (nine digit zip code) gain still more savings, but at the expense of additional handling and bundling, and additional postage cost will come into effect. When publishers decrease special sorting procedures because of lower circulation, postage rates increase per magazine. The Postal Service has asked for another rate increase for January 2001 but the future rate has not been established. This will, more than likely, precipitate another round of increased subscription rates. Both the Gospel Advocate in 1979 and the Firm Foundation in 1985 credited "astronomical increases in postage" as the reason for going to a bi-weekly from a weekly.

Internet Colleges and Universities. More and more colleges and universities are using the Internet as a mode of instruction, instead of the brick and morter of classrooms and campuses. The cost of dormitories, classrooms, parking, security are giving way to an Internet delivery system of text, videos, library resources, and on-line testing. With broader bandwidth coming in the next few years, classroom lectures will become full screen presentations available to the requestors at his/her time and can be viewed over and over. While many institutions are adding a electronics fee to help defray the cost of computer servers and delivery bandwidth, many are decreasing tution costs by as much as two-thirds. One western five state consortium is limiting classes to 2,000 taught on-line by one professor and graders. Both General Electric and IBM have opened their own Internet universities and are offering MBAs to their own employees and others.as well as saving money from the traditional education.

With older copyright laws over five million books will be on the Internet in a few years. Many colleges, library associations, consortium, and state financed Internet libraries now have free or college paid subscriptions rate for magazines and jounals on-line. However, religious publications are lagging behind. Christian periodicals which reside in colleges and university libraries are not presently available to the Internet student.

More and more Internet classes are designed around those resources that are on the Internet and not what is in the school's library. If present religious publishers plan to profit from their publications, they either will have to cooperate with an Internet company that makes a large number of journals available for a price. EBSCO, First Search, and ProQuest provide full text databases and search engines. The other choice is simply give the publication away with the cost and maintance of Internet servers and their own web sites.

Christian Magazines On-Line. A number of Christian Magazines are going on-line. These include on-line articles, text of present magazines, and archives of past issues. At present, many magazines have web sites to help sell subscriptions. Others place some of their articles on-line as a drawing card for subscriptions. And still others are building archives of both present and past issues. Example are The Christian Chronicle, Church Growth, Christian Bible Teacher, Ensign, and Restoration Review. This list is incomplete at this time.

The Future of Most Magazines.

1. With readership growing older and going to meet the Lord. the traditional church magazine will continue to decline, unless the publishers can attract those in their 20s and 30s.
2. Generation X or Baby Busters are turned off by theology issues and many of the purpose and goals of the Restoration Movement, but interested in how God interacts in their lives, building Christian Friendship, building e-mail (pen pals) friends, solutions to child raising, and "How To" handle every day crises in building relationships with God and friends.
3. Articles will be short and consumable in three to five minutes and more video clips will be used.
4. Due to the rising costs in publication and distribution, most will not pay the subscription price, but will be more inclined to use the Internet, if what they are looking for is readily available.
5. On-line journals will need more pictures, audio and video clips, and quick solutions to the student's questions.
6. With time, Christian universitys and college libraries will become archives of information with fewer students and visitors. They will be required to put more and more information on the Internet. More class materials will be needed for Internet classes to accompany video presentations, not the traditional lectures.
7. Internet classes will be built around information available on the Internet and be accompanied by videos.
8. The recent increase of Postal Rates in January 1999 and the next increase in January 2001 will cause marginal subscribers not to renew their subscriptions.
9. More new on-line magazines will be created without a printed version.